UNCT Turkmenistan completes horizon scanning country analysis supported with foresight training to strengthen anticipatory, SDG linked decision making

The effort was led by the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office (RCO) as a deliberate investment in UN 2.0 skills, with RCO Economist Uladzimir Valetka co‑delivering the training together with Andrew Morton, former UNEP and currently a UN Energy foresight consultant.

UN Futures Lab (2023) defines foresight as “an approach for systematically thinking and acting in a long term and anticipatory way under conditions of uncertainty.” Building on this approach, UNCT Turkmenistan has institutionalized a regular horizon‑scanning and rapid foresight process to inform its United Nations Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework (UNSDCF) and joint workplans.

From one‑off exercise to an institutional foresight cycle

Over the past 18 months, UNCT Turkmenistan has moved from treating foresight as a one‑off exercise at its April 2024 UNCT retreat focused on the 2026–2030 Cooperation Framework rollout roadmap to establishing a regular horizon‑scanning practice, validated through UN Country Analysis Task Force and Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) Group, piloted via the Rapid Foresight Tool, and formally endorsed by UNCT for integration into future retreats with regular UNCT sessions. The Rapid Foresight Tool, developed within the UNCA function, enables UNCT to scan for signals of change, prioritize those with the greatest impact on vulnerable groups and SDG transitions, and agree concrete “If–Then” actions linked to UNSDCF performance through its evaluation criteria.

Foresight findings: a warning signal and a window of opportunity

The foresight training was anchored in real‑world analysis of Turkmenistan’s energy‑dependent development trajectory, with Morton’s nearly finalized energy foresight study on hydrocarbon exports and revenues feeding directly into UNCT horizon‑scanning discussions. Commenting on the preliminary results, Andrew Morton said “despite revealed predominantly worrying trends by 2030 and a likely scenario of slow decline by 2050 driven by over‑reliance on energy export revenues and the “petrostate curse”, foresight analysis for Turkmenistan identified a critical opportunity for major policy reforms along two plausible alternative pathways – either continued petrostate status with much better public spending or diversification with much better spending. Both pathways require significant change and targeted advocacy and adaptation strategies for particularly vulnerable rural populations and youth”.

The analysis underscores that business‑as‑usual is not sustainable, but also that policy choices made in the coming years can still alter the trajectory, especially if they prioritize diversification, the quality of public spending and protection of those most at risk.

Foresight as more advanced way of country analysis

For UNCT Turkmenistan, foresight is not an abstract exercise, but a way to upgrade how evidence is used for joint decision‑making and to ensure that no one is left behind. Reflecting on the foresight training and analytical process, Uladzimir Valetka, RCO Economist, noted: “The foresight horizon‑scanning approach stimulates systemic thinking, clarifies interlinkages between prioritized SDG transitioonss, and enables focused attention on the most vulnerable populations and financing gaps; it is a significant improvement over previous methods, making country analysis more useful both for the UNCT’s work and for our joint efforts with the Government.”

The new approach strengthens systems thinking and SDG interlinkages by mapping how trends in energy, social protection, jobs, climate, food security and water management, peace and digitalization interact and create trade‑offs and synergies; it deepens LNOB and multidimensional risk analysis by systematically identifying which groups – such as rural households, youth, women, persons with disabilities, older people and returning migrants – are most affected by emerging risks; and it enhances accountability and adaptiveness by linking foresight discussions directly to UNSDCF joint workplan reviews and documenting clear, time‑bound follow‑up actions.

Next steps

Following completion of the country analysis update cycle, UNCT Turkmenistan will run horizon‑scanning and foresight sessions as part of the UN Country Analysis function, using the Rapid Foresight Tool in UNCT retreats and quarterly meetings to guide decisions in joint programming. Foresight outputs – including signals, drivers, implications and If–Then action cards – will feed into new UNSDCF implementation, risk management and SDG financing dialogue with national counterparts and partners, while the RCO and UNCT explore opportunities to share insights and methods with Government, civil society, academia and development partners, in line with national ownership and demand.

By institutionalizing foresight, UNCT Turkmenistan is operationalizing the UN 2.0 commitment to anticipatory, data‑driven and systems‑oriented cooperation, aimed at safeguarding development gains and supporting a more resilient, diversified and inclusive future for all people in Turkmenistan.